Free renovation & upgrade estimate before you sell. Request yours →416-953-9545

The Brief · October 15, 2026

Three releases between 16 and 19 October could move rates. Here is what to look for.

CMHC housing starts and CREA’s forecast land on Friday 16 October, inflation on Monday 19 October, and the Bank of Canada decides on 28 October. September’s detail also shows something the GTA headline hides: the cheaper the home type in Oakville, the harder prices fell.

−3.0%Oakville detached benchmark, year over year
−5.4%Semi and link
−6.2%Condo apartment
−8.4%Townhouse

TRREB Market Watch, September 2026: MLS® HPI benchmark prices for Oakville, change from September 2025.

The finding

In Oakville, entry-level homes lost the most.

Year over year, the benchmark price for an Oakville detached home is down 3.0%. Semi and link homes are down 5.4%, condo apartments 6.2%, and townhouses 8.4%. The GTA average (−5.1%) hides that spread. If you are buying at the lower end, there is more room than the headline suggests; if you are selling there, price from recent sold comparables on your street.

In this brief

The stories.

A newly built brick and timber apartment building seen from below

CMHC releases September housing starts

CMHC (release schedule stated in its August 2026 release)

CMHC says it will publish September starts on 16 October at 8:15 a.m. ET. August’s annualized pace was 229,046 units, barely changed from 229,360 in July, and CMHC expects the trend to keep drifting down toward year-end. Starts are the early signal for how many new homes reach the market in two to four years.

What it means: If starts keep falling while Urbanation shows record builder inventory today, the squeeze, if it comes, arrives later, not this winter.

A scheduled release, not a result yet. September 2025 was about 279,000, so a reading near August’s would be a clear year-over-year drop.

CREA quarterly forecast update

CREA

CREA’s quarterly forecast update is listed for Friday 16 October. Last year the national September sales figures came out in mid-October alongside it, so they may arrive together.

The date of the September sales report is not confirmed. Check crea.ca. This is a scheduled release, not a result.

Rates & policy

Statistics Canada releases September inflation (CPI)

Statistics Canada

The September CPI is scheduled for Monday 19 October at 8:30 a.m. ET, nine days before the Bank of Canada’s 28 October decision. August inflation was 3.0% year over year, driven mostly by gasoline; excluding gasoline it was 2.4%. A hotter September strengthens the case for a hike; a cooler one weakens it.

What it means: This is the last big inflation number before the Bank decides. Rate-sensitive buyers should have a quote in hand before it lands.

A scheduled release, not a result yet. The 3.0% August figure is as reported by market-data sites; confirm on statcan.gc.ca.

Rates & policy
A couple cooking together in a bright kitchen

Bank of Canada rate decision (with Monetary Policy Report)

Bank of Canada schedule

The policy rate has been held at 2.25% since December 2025. The next decision is 28 October, and it comes with updated forecasts.

What it means: If you are on a variable rate or renewing soon, get a rate quote and a rate hold before the announcement.

Date and outcome unconfirmed until announced. A future date, not a news event yet.

Rates & policyResale

Many Canadians switched to 3-year mortgages, which proved risky

Toronto Star · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

Borrowers who chose shorter 3-year terms are facing renewals sooner than they planned, in a rate environment that has not moved in their favour.

What it means: If your term ends in the next 12 months, ask your lender for a renewal quote and compare it with a broker’s.

Market data

More GTA tenants are falling behind on rent

CBC Toronto · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

CBC reports rising rent arrears as housing costs outpace incomes, a point worth watching for anyone who owns or is considering a rental property.

This week

What to do about it.

Market statistics describe past transactions and are not a prediction. Not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage. Yovan Gabric, REALTOR®, Royal LePage Pinnacle, Brokerage, independently owned and operated. E. & O.E.

A straightforward first conversation

Let’s look at the complete picture.

Tell me where you are in the process. We’ll discuss the property, the market, and the questions that matter most to you.

Book a consultation