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The market, without the noise.

Real figures from the boards and the news that moves them, sorted by what you are trying to do. Updated weekly, with a plain note on what each item means for a buyer or seller.

This week · 2026-10-15

Three releases between 16 and 19 October could move rates. Here is what to look for.

CMHC housing starts and CREA’s forecast land on Friday 16 October, inflation on Monday 19 October, and the Bank of Canada decides on 28 October. September’s detail also shows something the GTA headline hides: the cheaper the home type in Oakville, the harder prices fell.

5,040GTA sales · −9.0%
$1,006,409Average price · −5.1%
16,500New listings · −14.4%
−4.7%HPI benchmark, year over year

TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, released 6 October 2026. Compared with September 2025.

The finding

In Oakville, entry-level homes lost the most.

Year over year, the benchmark price for an Oakville detached home is down 3.0%. Semi and link homes are down 5.4%, condo apartments 6.2%, and townhouses 8.4%. The GTA average (−5.1%) hides that spread. If you are buying at the lower end, there is more room than the headline suggests; if you are selling there, price from recent sold comparables on your street.

Read the full brief →

Oakville & Halton · September 2026

How the Halton markets compare.

The GTA headline hides large differences between towns. Months of inventory is the quickest read on who has leverage.

September 2026SalesAvg. priceMedianActiveMos. inv.SP/LPDays
Oakville162$1,365,169$1,211,5001,0734.996%32
Burlington177$1,033,458$880,0007613.697%34
Milton118$1,018,973$917,5005223.896%35
Halton Hills45$1,054,940$889,0002694.195%27
Halton Region502$1,139,025$982,5002,6254.296%33

TRREB Market Watch, September 2026. SP/LP is average sale price to list price; Days is average days on market. Averages cover all home types and are not a valuation of any property. Full monthly report by home type →

Browse by what you’re doing

Six streams.

Each stream has its own news list and the tools that go with it.

Market dataWhat homes in Oakville, Halton and the GTA actually sold for, from the boards’ own published figures.ResaleBuying an existing home in a market with falling prices and a thin shelf of listings.Pre-constructionNew condos and towns: launches, completed inventory, deposits, and the deadlines that decide HST relief.Power of saleLender-led sales: how they work, why they are rising, and what buying “as is” really changes.Rates & policyInterest rates, taxes, rules and elections: the things that move the market from outside it.Selling & homeownersPreparing, pricing and presenting a home, and looking after it while you own it.

Picked for this week’s brief

The stories worth your time.

Pre-constructionMarket data
A newly built brick and timber apartment building seen from below

CMHC releases September housing starts

CMHC (release schedule stated in its August 2026 release)

CMHC says it will publish September starts on 16 October at 8:15 a.m. ET. August’s annualized pace was 229,046 units, barely changed from 229,360 in July, and CMHC expects the trend to keep drifting down toward year-end. Starts are the early signal for how many new homes reach the market in two to four years.

What it means: If starts keep falling while Urbanation shows record builder inventory today, the squeeze, if it comes, arrives later, not this winter.

A scheduled release, not a result yet. September 2025 was about 279,000, so a reading near August’s would be a clear year-over-year drop.

Market dataRates & policy

CREA quarterly forecast update

CREA

CREA’s quarterly forecast update is listed for Friday 16 October. Last year the national September sales figures came out in mid-October alongside it, so they may arrive together.

The date of the September sales report is not confirmed. Check crea.ca. This is a scheduled release, not a result.

Rates & policy

Statistics Canada releases September inflation (CPI)

Statistics Canada

The September CPI is scheduled for Monday 19 October at 8:30 a.m. ET, nine days before the Bank of Canada’s 28 October decision. August inflation was 3.0% year over year, driven mostly by gasoline; excluding gasoline it was 2.4%. A hotter September strengthens the case for a hike; a cooler one weakens it.

What it means: This is the last big inflation number before the Bank decides. Rate-sensitive buyers should have a quote in hand before it lands.

A scheduled release, not a result yet. The 3.0% August figure is as reported by market-data sites; confirm on statcan.gc.ca.

Rates & policy
A couple cooking together in a bright kitchen

Bank of Canada rate decision (with Monetary Policy Report)

Bank of Canada schedule

The policy rate has been held at 2.25% since December 2025. The next decision is 28 October, and it comes with updated forecasts.

What it means: If you are on a variable rate or renewing soon, get a rate quote and a rate hold before the announcement.

Date and outcome unconfirmed until announced. A future date, not a news event yet.

Rates & policyResale

Many Canadians switched to 3-year mortgages, which proved risky

Toronto Star · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

Borrowers who chose shorter 3-year terms are facing renewals sooner than they planned, in a rate environment that has not moved in their favour.

What it means: If your term ends in the next 12 months, ask your lender for a renewal quote and compare it with a broker’s.

Market data

More GTA tenants are falling behind on rent

CBC Toronto · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

CBC reports rising rent arrears as housing costs outpace incomes, a point worth watching for anyone who owns or is considering a rental property.

Latest

Everything we’re tracking.

Rates & policy

Could the Bank of Canada follow the Fed with a rate hike?

Les Affaires (Lefebvre) · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target range on 16 September, to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since August 2023, citing inflation from high energy prices. The column asks whether Canada could follow.

Opinion column. CIBC economists argue the Canadian case for a hike is weaker than the U.S. one.

Rates & policyResale

Canada weighs the future of the foreign homebuyer ban, which expires at year-end

National Post · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

The federal ban on foreign homebuyers is scheduled to expire at the end of 2026, and the government is reported to be considering what comes next.

ResaleMarket data

GTA bidding competition edges up, but sellers are still waiting

Canadian Mortgage Professional · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

Bidding activity ticked up in the GTA, but not enough to shift the balance back toward sellers.

Market data

Toronto home prices fall to a six-year low, 28% below peak

Better Dwelling · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

A Better Dwelling analysis reports Toronto prices at a six-year low, 28% below their peak.

Different data sets measure “peak” differently; check which benchmark is used before comparing.

Rates & policy

Toronto releases “made-in-Toronto” fourplex and sixplex designs

Toronto Star · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

The city published standard designs for fourplexes and sixplexes, part of the push for “missing middle” housing.

Rates & policyResale

Many Canadians switched to 3-year mortgages, which proved risky

Toronto Star · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

Borrowers who chose shorter 3-year terms are facing renewals sooner than they planned, in a rate environment that has not moved in their favour.

What it means: If your term ends in the next 12 months, ask your lender for a renewal quote and compare it with a broker’s.

Market data

More GTA tenants are falling behind on rent

CBC Toronto · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

CBC reports rising rent arrears as housing costs outpace incomes, a point worth watching for anyone who owns or is considering a rental property.

Market data

Hopes for a fall housing recovery fade as September sales drop

Financial Post · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

Financial Post reports that expectations of a fall recovery faded as September sales declined.

Market data

Canadians continue moving to Alberta and B.C., and leaving Ontario

Better Dwelling · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

Interprovincial migration continues to favour Alberta and British Columbia over Ontario.

Market data

Housing markets are diverging across Canada’s largest cities

CTV News (citing RBC Economics) · reported in CREA “Read All About It”, 8 Oct 2026

An RBC Economics report says conditions now differ widely across Canada’s big markets, with trade tensions re-escalating last month. Greater Montréal is reported to be shifting toward buyers.

Market dataResale
Glass condo towers against a blue evening sky

GTA home sales fall 9% in September as buyers hold back

TRREB Market Watch, September 2026

There were 5,040 sales across the GTA, down 9.0% from a year earlier. New listings fell faster, by 14.4% to 16,500. The average price was $1,006,409 (−5.1%) and the HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.7%. Townhouse sales fell furthest (−12.8%), then detached (−8.7%).

What it means: Listings are shrinking faster than sales. That cushions prices, but it also means fewer good homes to choose from.

Market dataResale
A modern two-storey home at dusk with a large tree and lit interior

Oakville in September: 162 sales, 4.9 months of inventory

TRREB Market Watch, September 2026

Oakville sold 162 homes at an average of $1,365,169 (median $1,211,500), selling at 96% of list price in 32 days on average. With 1,073 active listings, that is 4.9 months of inventory, the loosest of the four Halton municipalities (Burlington 3.6, Milton 3.8, Halton Hills 4.1).

What it means: Oakville buyers have more room to negotiate than buyers in Burlington or Milton, where the same month looks tighter.

The Halton & West GTA Brief

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How this page is written: Headlines and sources are credited and linked; summaries are independently written and do not reproduce the original articles. Items marked as reported in CREA’s “Read All About It” roundup were seen as headlines only and are not linked. Market figures come from TRREB, Urbanation, BILD and CREA as labelled. Photos are illustrative stock images and do not show the properties or events described. Confirm anything you plan to rely on at the source.

About this information.

Market statistics describe past transactions and are not a prediction. Nothing here is financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Pre-construction pricing and terms are set by builders and must be confirmed in the agreement of purchase and sale. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage. Yovan Gabric, REALTOR®, Royal LePage Pinnacle, Brokerage, independently owned and operated. MLS®, REALTOR®, and associated logos are trademarks of The Canadian Real Estate Association. E. & O.E.

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