CMHC (release schedule stated in its August 2026 release)
CMHC says it will publish September starts on 16 October at 8:15 a.m. ET. August’s annualized pace was 229,046 units, barely changed from 229,360 in July, and CMHC expects the trend to keep drifting down toward year-end. Starts are the early signal for how many new homes reach the market in two to four years.
What it means: If starts keep falling while Urbanation shows record builder inventory today, the squeeze, if it comes, arrives later, not this winter.
A scheduled release, not a result yet. September 2025 was about 279,000, so a reading near August’s would be a clear year-over-year drop.
New condo apartment sales rose about 52% year over year to 702 units, still roughly 86% below the 10-year Q2 average. The gain came from completed buildings (535 units, helped by bulk purchases and HST relief). Pre-construction sales fell about 80% to 50, and no new projects launched for a second quarter.
What it means: The activity is in completed inventory. That is where builder incentives and flexibility tend to show up.
Urbanation’s Q3 report is expected in late October; check it before relying on these figures.
Urbanation notes that the proposed HST relief requires construction to start before 31 March 2027 and be substantially complete by 31 December 2029. A project that starts late may not qualify.
What it means: Ask the builder, in writing, when construction starts and whether your unit is expected to qualify. Confirm with your lawyer.
Eligibility rules can change. Confirm current rules with the CRA or your lawyer.
1,175 new homes sold in June, up from the record low a year earlier but still about half the 10-year average. Remaining inventory was 18,888 units, and the new condo apartment benchmark was about $1.04 million.
BILD counts all new homes; Urbanation counts condo apartments only. The totals are not comparable.
Summaries are independently written; sources are credited and linked where a link exists. Not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage. Yovan Gabric, REALTOR®, Royal LePage Pinnacle, Brokerage, independently owned and operated. E. & O.E.
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